The rise of U.S. shale oil is set to extend well into the 2020s, stealing market share from OPEC, the group said in its latest World Oil Outlook.

Total supply from outside of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will surge by 8.6 MMbpd from 2017 to 2023, to 66.1 MMbpd. This will mainly be driven by increases in U.S. shale oil output, the report said. The estimates from this year’s report are a slight increase from those of the previous year.

American tight oil production will rise to 16 MMbpd by the late 2020s, the report said, making up almost 25% of total non-OPEC supply by then. Once U.S. production peaks, demand for OPEC’s oil should grow again, rising by 10.5 MMbpd from 2017 to 2040. However, OPEC forecasts that its share of the global crude supply mix will rise just 2 percentage points, to 36%, by 2040.

Source: World Oil