Nigeria faces a bleaker future should oil demand peak 15 years earlier than previous forecasts that estimated it will take another 20 years to happen. According to new reports, oil demand could peak as soon as five years from now.

This was deduced from a new report by London headquartered Carbon Tracker Initiative, an independent financial think tank that carries out in-depth analysis on the impact of the energy transition and which says that a combination of technology, policy and “necessity” will translate into a peaking of oil demand in the 2020s.

“The motor of change now lies in the emerging markets, which is where all the growth in energy demand lies,” the Carbon Tracker report argues. “They have less fossil fuel legacy infrastructure, rising energy dependency, and are anxious to seize the opportunities of the renewables age. We believe it highly likely therefore that emerging markets will increasingly source their energy demand growth from renewable sources not from fossil fuels.”

Also this week, a report from Norwegian risk-management company DNV GL comes to a similar conclusion as Carbon Tracker – that is, peak oil demand will arrive in the next half-decade or so. “The transition is undeniable,” said DNV CEO Remi Eriksen, according to the WSJ.