About 60 percent of world’s recoverable crude oil resource will have yet to be produced by 2040. This is one of the findings by ExxonMobil in its 2014 Energy Outlook series presented to stakeholders in oil and gas industry in an event in Lagos.
“There is more oil than is being found so we should expect more and more discoveries in the near future”, said Oladotun Isiaka, general manager, deepwater operation and joint interest, Esso Exploration and Production Nigeria, one of the subsidiaries of ExxonMobil.
Isiaka, while making the presentation, said that there will be 35 percent growth in energy demand by 2040. 90 percent of the energy demand from 2010 to 2040 will come from electricity. The increased energy demand would be driven by population growth, improved living standards and expanded urbanization, adding that the world will require all forms of energy over the next quarter century to meet the greater than one-third increase in demand.
The report anticipates that population growth will reach nearly 9 billion in 2040 from about 7 billion today, and a projected doubling of the global economy – at an annual growth rate of nearly 3 percent – largely in the developing world where rising living standards will continue to lift millions of people out of poverty.
By 2020, America will move from net importer of oil and gas to net exporter; Europe will continue to be net importer; Africa will pay more emphasis on gas and will also decline as net exporter while Asia will continue to be net importer.
In the report, ExxonMobil projects that future energy will be supported by more efficient energy-saving practices and technologies, increased use of less-carbon-intensive fuels such as natural gas, nuclear and renewables as well as the continued development of technology advances to develop new energy sources.
The outlook projects that oil and natural gas will continue to meet about 60 percent of energy needs by 2040. Liquid fuels – gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and fuel oil – will remain the energy of choice for most types of transportation because they offer a unique combination of affordability, availability, portability and high energy density.
Natural gas will continue to be the fastest-growing major fuel source as demand increases by about 65 percent. Natural gas is projected to account for more than one quarter of all global energy needs by 2040 and it is expected to overtake coal as the largest source of electricity.
Energy used for power generation will continue to be the largest component of global demand and is expected to grow by more than 50 percent by 2040 as improved living standards that come with urbanization and rising incomes lead to increased household and industrial electricity consumption through wider penetration of electronics, appliances and other modern conveniences. The growth reflects an expected 90 percent increase in electricity use, led by developing countries where 1.3 billion people are currently without access to electricity.